As a Dutchman, the Russia coach, Dick Advocaat, is unlikely to veer from 4-3-3, and Andrey Arshavin is still crucial to his plans
This article is part of the Guardian's Euro 2012 Experts' Network, a co-operation between 16 of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for the finals in Poland and Ukraine. guardian.co.uk is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 8 June.
The tactics
As one would guess from his nationality, Dick Advocaat worships the 4-3-3 formation and does not like to deviate from it. The Dutch manager introduced the system at Zenit St Petersburg in 2007, and now uses it with the national team. Since Guus Hiddink left the team and the successful Euro 2008 campaign, Russia have become more solid in defence but they are not as dangerous going forward as they were when Andrey Arshavin and his team-mates were four years younger.
The CSKA Moscow goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev is, injury permitting, going to be first choice in goal, despite the fact that he has already had a long-lay off this season with a torn cruciate ligament. He returned to action in April and should have enough time to regain his best form. This is somewhat harsh on Vyacheslav Malafeev of Zenit, who has had the best season of his career (he has played well in the Russian Premier League and in the Champions League and his record, by mid-April, includes four clean sheets in four games for Russia). Akinfeev, however, has a better reputation and is arguably better at communicating with the defenders (who are mainly from his club side, CSKA).
In central defence, CSKA provide Sergei Ignashevich (who almost joined West Ham in 2009) and one of the Berezutsky twins, Vasily. The ex-Chelsea and ex-army man Yuri Zhirkov is the most likely option at left-back. Before Hiddink, Zhirkov had never played in the back four, but the success at Euro 2008 has forced managers to consider him as a full-back rather than a winger. Zhirkov has played mainly in midfield with Anzhi Makhachkala but is unlikely to do so for the national team. His colleague on the right is Aleksandr Anyukov from Zenit, who had the most assist by any defender in all the Euro 2012 qualifying groups.
The three positions in midfield could all be occupied by Zenit players. Igor Denisov will operate as a holding midfielder to support Roman Shirokov and Konstantin Zyryanov, though the place of the last of these is not secure any more. The 34 year-old could be replaced by the impressive Denis Glushakov from Lokomotiv Moscow, who has scored the most goals from outside the penalty area in the Russian league this season. Zyryanov also faces competition from Igor Semshov from Dynamo Moscow. There are plenty of options in the attack but none of them look really convincing. Andrey Arshavin should start all three group games despite not being in the best physical shape. During qualifying, Advocaat usually played Arshavin on one side and CSKA's youngster Alan Dzagoev, who is a natural No10, on the other, with the latter having to cut in from the right. Advocaat has often played with a fairly isolated lone striker up front but neither Roman Pavlyuchenko nor Pavel Pogrebnyak have had the best of seasons (although the latter has been boosted by his move to Fulham). Aleksandr Kerzhakov from Zenit who, by mid-May, was the second goalscorer in the Russian Premier League with 21 goals from 29 games, cannot be ignored this time (Hiddink dropped him four years ago). Kerzhakov could end up playing as a support striker but, wherever he plays, he is likely to be Russia's biggest threat going forward. Such has been his form this season.
Who is the player who is going to surprise everyone at the Euros?
Russia expects a lot from Shirokov. He has been impressive for Zenit and for the country over the past two years, notably scoring five goals in the 2011-12 Champions League. "Some time ago Shirokov thought of himself as a modern-day Franz Beckenbauer," Dick Advocaat has said, "but now he finally got it right and made huge progress."
Who is the player who is going to disappoint the most?
I'd say Arshavin, although this isn't very fair to the best player Russia has ever produced. He was a true leader at Euro 2008 but now he lacks match fitness, confidence and the trust of his team-mates. Advocaat says Arshavin needs playing time but the winter loan move to Zenit has only seen him performing "one out of five games at his level", according to the club's manager, Luciano Spalletti.
What is the realistic aim for your team at the Euros and why?
Russia have probably the easiest group in the tournament, so I expect us to reach the quarter-finals. Second place in the group is realistic, especially as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said he would like to see Russia (as Group A runners-up) play against Germany (as Group B winners) in the quarter-final on 22 June, the day the second world war started for most of Soviet Union. It would be all over for Russia after that, though.
Ivan Kalashnikov is the deputy editor at sports.ru
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