Italy hope their midfield diamond can shine again against Spain
The Pirlo conundrum
Sunday's final should be an intriguing tactical battle, as Italy's 1-1 draw with Spain in the group stage was probably the most fascinating match of the tournament. Cesare Prandelli played a 3-5-2, while Vicente del Bosque started without a recognised centre-forward, using Cesc Fabregas as a false nine.
Whereas both England and Germany appeared surprised at Andrea Pirlo's influence, Spain recognised his threat. "In Pirlo," Xavi said before the tournament, "Italy have a genius with the ball." He [Hernández] marked Pirlo but the Juventus midfielder still wriggled away from challenges and assisted Antonio Di Natale's opener. This time, he'll be even more difficult to deal with, as Italy have switched from a 3-5-2 to a midfield diamond, allowing an extra midfielder.
If Xavi closes down, Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets may be overrun by Daniele De Rossi, Claudio Marchisio and Riccardo Montolivo, the extra midfielder. His role against Germany on Thursday night was crucial – he pressed Germany's deep-lying central midfielders, then shuttled back to a position alongside Pirlo.
Jogi Low recognised the need for extra midfield numbers, but disturbed the balance of the team by introducing Toni Kroos. Andres Iniesta drifts into central zones from the left anyway, so Spain shouldn't be uncomfortable.
Spain should exploit Italy's narrowness
Vicente del Bosque started without a recognised centre-forward in the previous meeting, using Cesc Fábregas as a false nine. Spain spent the majority of the game playing in front of Italy's defence, rather than looking to test their offside trap with runs in behind, or exploiting their narrowness by attacking down the wings. It was noticeable how much Del Bosque's side improved when they introduced pace and directness – Fernando Torres wasted three good chances, but at least he was providing variety in attack with clever runs. Jesús Navas also had a positive impact, stretching the play laterally.
Del Bosque has two big decisions to make in the attacking positions. David Silva has started all five of Spain's matches, but only finished one – and Spain were at their best against Portugal when they introduced Pedro Rodriguez and Navas on the flanks. Besides, Italy's full-backs lack protection from the diamond and are arguably their weak link, something not tested enough by England and Germany. Both Pedro and Navas played important roles in the World Cup final two years ago, and width from the start would make Spain much more dangerous.
Upfront, Alvaro Negredo had little impact against Portugal, while Fernando Llorente is yet to play a minute in the competition. It's probably a choice between Torres and Fabregas – the latter might be preferred, to drop deep and help pressure Pirlo.
Alba and Arbeloa proceed with care
Spain's full-backs will be the game's freest players – with no direct opponents, Jordi Alba and Alvaro Arbeloa will move forward untracked, and receive passes from Spain's central midfielders. Alba is unquestionably a superior player on the ball, but Arbeloa can be overlooked and move forward into dangerous positions.
Italy weren't troubled by the Spanish full-backs in the 1-1 draw – the 3-5-2 meant the two wing-backs, Emanuele Giaccherini and Christian Maggio, had great freedom of movement and pushed Alba and Arbeloa back. It will be more complex with the diamond, and Italy will probably deal with them in three separate ways.
First, their diamond will shift laterally to close the full-backs down, although this can leave Italy vulnerable to quick switches in play, which Xabi Alonso will facilitate with diagonal balls. Second, if Spain's wide midfielders move inside, the Italian full-backs will be content to leave them in central positions, and push forward to meet Alba and Arbeloa when they get the ball in the final third.
Finally, Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli will drift into wide positions, making the Spanish full-backs nervous about advancing. Previously this drew Gerard Piqué and Sergio Ramos wide, and Balotelli should have scored after embarrassing Ramos near the touchline. Read More
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