Slaven Bilic does not have the best squad at Euro 2012, so the unpredictable but tactically astute coach may have to take a few risks against Italy, Ireland and Spain
This article is part of the Guardian's Euro 2012 Experts' Network, a co-operation between 16 of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for the finals in Poland and Ukraine. guardian.co.uk is running previews from two countries each day in the runup to the tournament kicking off on 8 June.
Slaven Bilic has proved to be flexible when it comes to formations. The Croatia manager can switch from 4‑1‑3‑2 to 4‑2‑3‑1, 4‑3‑3 or 4‑4‑2 – but usually in some sort of modified, unorthodox fashion. He does not think formations play a crucial role and is far more likely to rely on individual instructions as one of the few international managers who is prepared to employ five or six attack-minded players. It could be argued, however, that in Croatia's case this is done out of necessity rather than any determination to play attacking football.
The retirement of the Kovac brothers, the centre-back Robert and defensive midfielder Niko, has been a huge setback for Bilic. Following the break up of the Euro 2008 squad, the national coach has been left with plenty of options up front, but few at the back. This has been exacerbated by his willingness to employ two attacking full-backs, which can often leave his centre-backs exposed, especially without a player like Niko Kovac to protect them.
Because of this, Bilic usually employs a deeper defensive line and when Croatia play against teams with congested midfields, the attackers also have to drop deep to win the ball. It is a very demanding plan, both tactically and physically, and it is very hard to get it right without adequate preparation, a luxury this squad – which is scattered across the continent and only together for a few days before matches – have not had during their qualifying campaign. But this is also what gives them hope. Bilic and the players have expressed the belief that everything will fall into place at Euro 2012 because of the extra time they will have together.
The highly dynamic and attacking 4-4-2 formation that Croatia employed in their 3-0 play-off win against Turkey in Istanbul is an option for the match against Italy on 14 June, but it is unlikely that the manager will choose a similar approach in the Group C opener against Ireland on 10 June. Bilic could well add Eduardo da Silva or Nikica Jelavic to the forward line for the game against Giovanni Trapattoni's side. However, the Croat is a man who analyses tactical trends and it is entirely possible he will come up with something completely new for the tournament.
Against Ireland and Italy, injury permitting, Bilic is almost certain to start with Stipe Pletikosa in goal, Tomislav Dujmovic or Ognjen Vukojevic as the defensive midfielder, Darijo Srna as a right-sided midfielder, full-back or wing-back, Tottenham Hotspur's Luka Modric in the centre of the midfield, and, following the late withdrawal of Ivica Olic through injury, Nikica Jelavic and Mario Mandzukic up front.
Vedran Corluka is also likely to start these games, though it is not clear in which position he will play. The Bayer Leverkusen man feels most comfortable at right-back but could be asked to fill in on the left, in the centre, or even in midfield.
While Bilic has plenty of options in midfield (Ivan Rakitic, Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Perisic), and in attack (Eduardo and Nikola Kalinic), defence is a real problem. Lyon's Dejan Lovren has left the squad with an achilles injury and depending on where the manager chooses to play Corluka, Joe Simunic of Dinamo Zagreb and Eintracht Frankfurt's Gordon Schildenfeld are candidates for the central roles while Domagoj Vida should begin at right-back with either Ivan Strinic or Danijel Pranjic on the left.
Bilic is more unpredictable than any former Croatia manager. In fact, he is probably more unpredictable than most national coaches. While it can be argued that his tinkering is simply down to a lack of vision, it is probably closer to the truth to be saying that he is trying to get the most out of a limited pool of players.
Who is the player who is going to surprise everyone at the Euros?
Nikica Jelavic only made three starts in qualifying and managed a total of 315 minutes on the pitch for a return of no goals, but with the late withdrawal of the veteran Ivica Olic and the 26-year-old's immediate impact in the Premier League last season, he is likely to get more of a run in Poland and Ukraine.
It had all looked promising for Jelavic after scoring on his Croatia debut – a 3-2 friendly win against Qatar in 2009 – but he has only added one more international goal in 18 games – although only a handful were starts – with Olic, Eduardo and Mario Mandzukic usually in front of him.
Jelavic's greatest strength is his ability to finish, with either foot and usually first time, but at 6ft 1in he is also decent in the air and he can hold the ball up playing as a lone front man, although it is in front of goal where he gives best value.
He managed 11 goals in 16 games after his £5.5m move to Everton to finish as their top scorer having knocked in 17 for Rangers in the first half of the campaign, and finished as their top scorer too. The previous season he got 19 and also bagged goal of the season for good measure with an overhead kick against Aberdeen.
Jelavic has finally proved that he can do it in a big league so expect to see Slaven Bilic, who understands the pressure of playing for the Goodison club after four fallow years of his own on their payroll, using him a lot more often.
Who is the player who is going to disappoint the most?
Luka Modric. If things go downhill for Croatia, he will be most likely to blame. After being instrumental to Spurs' success for most of the season, the playmaker had a major slump in form towards the end of it, and the leading pundit Igor Stimac (the former Croatia and Derby County defender) says he's been "used up". Modric is one of the few guaranteed starters in the squad, but if he fails to produce, a disaster could be just around the corner …
What is the realistic aim for your team at the Euros and why?
Get past the group stage. It's impossible to predict our chances at this point, because the squad lacks depth and if some of the key players get injured we could be doomed. But if we stay clear of injuries, we can do it. The first game against Ireland will shape everything – a win would boost the squad's confidence and give them a great psychological advantage … We have a very good record against the Italians (two wins and one draw in competitive matches) and know how to play against them, and Spain could have qualified for the last eight by the time we meet them. If we manage to go through, just about anything is possible.
Aleksandar Holiga is the editor-in-chief of FourFourTwo Croatia
Click here to read the profile of Darijo Srna
And click here to read the secrets behind the Croatia players Read More
انسخ الكود التالى و ضعه فى موقعك او مدونتك.
