Les Bleus have problems: the centre of defence is weak, the squad is inexperienced and Franck Ribéry rarely performs in the national shirt
This article is part of the Guardian's Euro 2012 Experts' Network, a co-operation between 16 of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for the finals in Poland and Ukraine. guardian.co.uk is running previews from two countries each day in the runup to the tournament kicking off on 8 June.
"When I first started as national team coach, I told the players a few of my principles: I like passing the ball around and I like to keep the ball. I like it when the ball is played out from the back – and I also like my teams to be efficient." Those are the words of the French coach Laurent Blanc and that is the style of football he promotes.
For the French team, more used to a counter-attacking style since its success in the 1998 World Cup, the change is quite significant and very ambitious as, apart from Franck Ribéry at Bayern and Karim Benzema at Real Madrid, there are no French star players at the major European clubs. Long gone are the days of Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry, and David Trezeguet.
The French team, nevertheless, are doing well. They qualified fairly calmly for Euro 2012 and are unbeaten in 18 games, including matches against opposition such as Brazil, England and Germany.
The French coach relies on a 4-2-3-1 formation, designed to be compact and competitive in midfield. The goalkeeper will be Hugo Lloris. Impeccable with Lyon, the keeper from Nice has confirmed his position as the French No1 ahead of Marseille's Steve Mandanda.
In central defence, fitness permitting, Blanc has preferred the partnership of Philippe Mexès and Adil Rami. However, the centre of defence is currently a weakness. Rami, who plays for Valencia, is strong, but clumsy and inexperienced at the highest level. Mexès is probably the better footballer, but has been accused of having a fragile mind and lost his place in the Milan starting lineup in the spring.
The full-backs should be Patrice Evra on the left (who is likely to start with Eric Abidal absent following his liver transplant) and, probably, Mathieu Debuchy on the right. The Lille player, who made two assists in the victory over Germany in February will replace the injured Bacary Sagna, who is out with a broken leg. Evra and Debuchy also offer the attacking contribution that Blanc seems to like so much, whereas Sagna is often criticised for the quality of his crossing.
The midfield constellation is less clear-cut. For the defensive positions, Blanc would like to combine one physically strong holding player and a faster team-mate with a complete vision of the game. For the more defensive slot, Blanc relied heavily on Abou Diaby when he took the job but the Arsenal player has been injured for a long time while Alou Diarra has had a pretty bad season with Marseille.
In the more adventurous role, the young Yann M'Vila, an Arsenal target who has been expected to be given the job, has been sluggish with Rennes. So Blanc could be tempted to bring in Yohan Cabaye, at ease on the ball and coming off a fantastic season at Newcastle.
The three attacking midfielders are very important as well. They are, in Blanc's vision, the players in charge of leading the game. A big fan of the Spanish/Barcelona style of play, Blanc has several players with the same kind of profile – short and technical – as Xavi or Andres Iniesta: Franck Ribéry, Mathieu Valbuena, Sami Nasri, Jérémy Ménez, Marvin Martin, and Hatem Ben Arfa.
It is likely that Nasri and Ribéry will start. For the third place, on the right, the competition is tough: Valbuena is always good when he comes into play, Ménez has finished the season strongly with Paris Saint Germain, and Martin – even playing for Sochaux, a team who spent last season fighting against relegation from Ligue 1 – has always enjoyed the confidence of the coach and is a complete box-to-box player (whose best position is probably central anyway).
Ben Arfa, whom no one would have bet on being included in the Euro 2012 squad two months ago, has reminded everyone of his undeniable talent with his recent performances at Newcastle. Also to be kept in mind is Florent Malouda who, despite losing his place in the Chelsea starting XI, remains one of the most experienced players for the French national team. The other option, more defensive, is to line up two "gatekeepers" to support the defence and, to complete the Ribéry-Nasri pair with a player such as Cabaye.
Whatever system is chosen and whoever the attacking midfielders are, they will have to make themselves available to Benzema, the unchallenged star of the team. The obvious risk at Euro 2012, however, is that Benzema might just start to miss Cristiano Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil …
If disaster strikes and Benzema is injured then there is Olivier Giroud. But playing with him forces France to play against Blanc's nature: this team loves playing with the ball, but with Giroud they play more kick-and-rush football, trying to play long balls onto his head. And that is not that easy for this team. After Giroud there is Loïc Rémy. A guy who loves open spaces, just like Henry. He is very fast and he is a good player for a team that loves defending.
Which player is going to surprise everyone at the Euros?
Mathieu Debuchy can be the big surprise from France. He's our Philipp Lahm, actually. He is very good at crossing the ball, and he is a great counter-attacking player.
Which player is going to disappoint the most?
Franck Ribéry could be this guy. He's been compared to Lionel Messi in the Argentinian team: he is very good with Bayern Munich, but very bad with the national side. He is always dribbling too much, wants above all to be a hero, but he wastes a lots of our attacks. If Karim Benzema manages to make him understand that he has to play with the whole team, then the French can spring a surprise. If not …
What is the realistic aim for your team at the Euros and why?
Quarter-finals. It's a young team, with a lot of players that have no experience, who play at small clubs. We only have two world-class players: Franck Ribéry and Karim Benzema. And only one is any good in the national team shirt.
Giovanni Seri is a football writer with So Foot
Click here to read the profile of Franck Ribéry
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