England look to Greece for inspiration, Italy need improvement fast, beware the Danes and Russia are dark horses … again
England plan to emulate Greece
Europe beware, the English are coming and they are armed with two banks of four. Anyone labouring under the misapprehension that England might try to play some football this summer will have had that notion beaten out of them during the stultifying friendly win over Belgium, in which their opponents were mostly prevented from giving Joe Hart anything to worry about. Sure, for the second game in a row England were embarrassed in the possession stats – 41% to Belgium's 59% after managing 44% against Norway – but that's not part of Roy Rehhagel's masterplan. Which is to win it like Greece did in 2004: defend, defend, defend some more and then hope to nick a goal from somewhere.
That approach worked against Belgium, who were unable to find space behind the solid England defence and were hit by a suckerpunch when Steven Gerrard nicked possession in midfield and found Ashley Young, whose through-ball allowed Danny Welbeck to scoot clear and score with a dainty chip. Change the names involved to Frank Lampard, Ramires and Didier Drogba and we have a moment reminiscent of Chelsea's 1-0 win against Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. Perhaps understandably, Hodgson is looking to follow the example set by Chelsea in the Champions League, realising his side is essentially incapable of stringing more than three passes together, meaning they must rely on soaking up the pressure, lulling the opposition into a false sense of security and then moving the ball forward as quickly as possible when they win it.
Given that England's defence has arguably been their strongest area for the past 10 years, save for the debacle in South Africa two years ago, Hodgson is wise to bank on it performing this summer – although it will be far more difficult keeping France at bay than Belgium and Norway, especially now Gary Cahill is out. Hodgson's England have not been tested by anyone as dangerous as Karim Benzema, Samir Nasri and Franck Ribéry. Even so, their last five wins have all finished 1-0 to the Ingerlund, including a victory over the world champions Spain. No one will be complaining if the end justifies the means. Ask Greece. No one gave them a chance in 2004 and they ended up beating France, the Czech Republic and Portugal in the knockout stages, barely bothering to attack at all. The score in each game? 1-0. JS
Italy are clutching at straws
Crisis is an overused word in football, but if it wasn't for the seriousness of Italy's off-field problems then it would not be unfair for "crisis" to be mentioned in relation to the problems facing Cesare Prandelli and his side on the pitch.
The 3-0 thumping by Russia on Friday was Italy's third defeat on the spin and they have failed to score in each of those games, but it was the shambolic nature of much of their display against the Russians that will cause most concern. Their vulnerability defending set pieces was evident and, of all their opponents in Group C, the Republic of Ireland will be the ones to look at that and see an area where they can prosper. By the time Italy face Ireland on 18 June they will have already played Spain and Croatia and without a marked improvement from what we saw on Friday their tournament could already be at an end.
The return of key players such as Gigi Buffon will add authority to a side that showed practically no willingness to fight when things didn't go their way, but even taking those factors into account, it was still an extremely worrying display.
There were some positives – Mario Balotelli may well have played his way into Prandelli's starting XI for their opening fixture against Spain on Sunday after a first‑half performance in which the Manchester City man linked up well with Antonio Cassano; Andrea Pirlo again showed his class and there were flashes of the cohesive, attacking game that Prandelli wants to play, but that was about it.
"Italy respond well in a crisis," is the warning from those who see a squad engulfed in a scandal and are reminded of their heroics against the odds in 2006. From the outside it seems like that is clutching at straws somewhat. It may be all they have. EF
Denmark can spring a surprise
Italy are not the only who will look to history for inspiration. We all know Denmark love a surprise in the European Championship. Morten Olsen's 2012 side cannot really expect to go on and win this tournament, but some of their football in the 2-0 win over Australia on Saturday suggests that it is the Danes, rather than Portugal (see below), who are in the best position to challenge Holland and Germany's apparent supremacy in Group B.
With defeats in each of their previous two outings, Denmark really needed a positive result and performance in their final warm-up game and while reading heavily into a friendly against Australia is about as relevant as looking for life lessons from an episode of Neighbours, the victory should at least send Olsen's side into the tournament with optimism.
The link-up play involving a marauding Daniel Agger, Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen for the first goal points to a confidence and willingness to attack that will make the Danes extremely competitive. Eriksen, who is carrying a slight injury, has the ability to make a big impact on the tournament. If Denmark can avoid defeat in their opening game against Holland on Saturday, the Ajax playmaker may have more than three matches to make his presence felt. EF
The pressure is on Ronaldo
Portugal's poor pre-tournament form can only crystallise the feeling that if Paulo Bento's side are to get out of the so-called "group of death" and reach the knockout stages then Cristiano Ronaldo is going to have to drag them there by the coat-tails. Bento sent out a near full-strength side for their final warm-up game, before their opening fixture against Germany on Saturday in Lviv, and looked on with something akin to horror as Turkey dismantled his side in a 3-1 win.
It was not all disappointing for Bento – Portugal started well and were unfortunate to be behind at the break, and had Ronaldo not uncharacteristically missed a second-half penalty then they may well have drawn the game – but perhaps the defeat highlighted the areas where most regular observers believe Portugal are weak, namely a lightweight midfield that lacks a playmaker and a defence that is brittle and unreliable.
Portugal have yet to win this year and have scored one goal in their last three friendlies. Ronaldo will have to discover his club form if they are to finish in the top two in Group B. The pressure is on the world's most expensive player. You get the impression he wouldn't have it any other way. EF
Russia are dark horses once again
Tournament football's perennial dark horses are once again shaping up to be an outside tip to go far in Poland and Ukraine. Friday's 3-0 victory over Italy in Zurich was as emphatic as it was impressive, though you would label much of the Italian resistance "Keystone Cops defending" if we didn't know that the cops have already been and gone from the Italian camp. Dick Advocaat's side could only beat what was in front of them, however, and the fluidity of their attacking display brought back memories of their performances in 2008.
In Roman Shirokov – "the Joey Barton of Russian football" – they have a player who can potentially make the same impact on this tournament as Andrey Arshavin did four years ago. Shirokov scored twice against the Italians but the most impressive element of the Russian performance was how many players they committed to attack and how swift and crisp the interplay was between the forwards, with Aleksandr Kerzhakov standing out.
The dark horse label and Russia go hand-in-hand. The law of averages would suggest that eventually they have to deliver. EF Read More
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