David Villa and Carles Puyol's absences leave Vicente Del Bosque with plenty to ponder for the champions
This article is part of the Guardian's Euro 2012 Experts' Network, a co-operation between 16 of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for the finals in Poland and Ukraine. guardian.co.uk is running previews from two countries each day in the runup to the tournament kicking off on 8 June.
Winners of the last two major championships – Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup in South Africa – Spain go into the European Championship as favourites for the first time in their history. That does not bother them because for a while now they have always been at their best in official matches, but not in friendlies, where they have been matched by smaller rivals such as Costa Rica or Mexico, and beaten by more substantial opponents such as Italy, Argentina, England and Portugal. The makeup of the squad, however, produces few questions, beyond those raised by the absence of David Villa (broken tibia) and any tactical tweak that Vicente Del Bosque may affect at the back.
The biggest unknown lies in whether Spain should play in the image of Barcelona, with the idea that football is a game of midfielders, a phrase that defines the ideology of their former coach Pep Guardiola, or, conversely, maintain the formula that has brought them so much success. Del Bosque picked up Luis Aragonés's idea of a football based on the Barça model, with players who require possession, the killer pass and the finish in the six-yard area.
The unchanging system was 4-3-3, with Sergio Busquets, Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernández in midfield, with Villa on the left flank, Andrés Iniesta on the right and Fernando Torres as the point of the attack. At the World Cup, however, Torres lost his place, Villa relocated to the centre-forward position, Iniesta moved to the left making room for Pedro Rodríguez on the right. Now, for sure, there will be a fresh twist.
With Villa injured and Torres questioned because his Chelsea form has not matched that he showed at Atlético Madrid or in his early years at Liverpool, Spain have no choice but to throw in midfielders, who are as abundant as they are good. Thus, retaining the commitment to the 4-3-3, with the same players in midfield and Iniesta pulled to the left, leaves the question of who will start up front and on the right wing.
Juan Mata and David Silva are both left-footers who like to play on the right and cut inside to release the final pass or shot. In the centre of the attack, however, Fernando Llorente looks more like an emergency solution than a safe bet since he is a finisher who does not get involved in the buildup play in the opposition half. Therefore the focal point of the attack could be Cesc Fábregas or whoever misses out from the pair of Mata and Silva.
In the absence of Messi at Barça, Fábregas has already acted this season as a false striker in the tactical style favoured by Johan Cruyff or Guardiola. Thus, in the starting lineup, along with the goalkeeper and four defenders, six midfielders and no forwards would share the ball.
Since Iker Casillas's position in goal is safe, the only doubt is in defence. The emergence of Jordi Alba at left-back seems to have convinced Del Bosque, a position formerly occupied by Joan Capdevila. The knee injury to Carles Puyol, combined with Sergio Ramos's stunning season for Real Madrid, where he showed he was capable of being put under pressure and covering for the team and his partner, means that Del Bosque will probably go with Gerard Piqué and Ramos in the centre and Alvaro Arbeloa on the right.
Who is the player who is going to surprise everyone at the Euros?
In a squad of European champions and World Cup winners, there are few surprises. But one player who could catch the eye of people outside Spain is the left-back Jordi Alba. Manchester United and Barcelona already want the 23-year-old, who was released once before by the Catalans – in 2005. Still playing for the Under-21s at the time of the World Cup final, Alba could well make his international breakthrough this summer.
Who is the player who may disappoint the most?
It is hard to say as most of them are such good footballers, but the Barcelona players did seem quite tired towards the end of the season. It may be that Xavi and Iniesta are not quite as sharp as might be expected.
What is the realistic aim for your team at the Euros and why?
Having won the last two major tournaments, the only realistic aim is to win this one. But it will be incredibly hard – just look at what happened to France in 2002 after their two triumphs. They went out in the group stage.
Jordi Quixano, is a football writer at El País Read More
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