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Fighting Talk with Andrea Pirlo: "They have been very fortunate in getting this far. Against France they were completely outplayed, then they struggled against Sweden and were extremely lucky to win against Ukraine." Now you listen here, 'Mr Pirlo' ... No, actually that's quite a fair assessment of England's showing so far, even if they might reasonably point out that they deserve to be in the quarter-finals. England's first three games have indeed been strange affairs. Never deviating from Hodgson's Two Banks Of Four, they have often been rigid, ponderous and incapable of keeping the ball for more than three seconds. Against Italy's midfield, that could turn out to be fatal and Pirlo is right, England have hardly been entirely convincing in any of their three games. On the face of it, this is a weak side that ostensibly has no business being in the latter stages of the Euros, but what they lack in individual class, they make up for togetherness as a solid team unit - even if their inability to keep the ball inevitably leads to the defence crumbling under incessant pressure.

It's difficult to work out what kind of style England play. Is it tiki-taka? They can't be labelled a counter-attacking side, not when Germany demonstrate what it really means to play on the break. Maybe they're just the sort of side that soaks up pressure and then as soon as they get the ball, they kick it forward very quickly, presumably where the strikers are, and then hope for the best. A rudimentary tactic at best, but one that has brought a surprising amount of success so far. Even when England were being pummelled by Ukraine in the first half on Tuesday, they still created the best chance, missed by Wayne Rooney. With Rooney restored to the side, they do carry this vague threat. It's hard to describe precisely what it is but they do inexplicably seem to unnerve opposition defences.

Good evening. What do you mean you still believe? You never believed in the first place. You're only starting to believe now. Before the tournament started, expectations for Euro 2012 were so low most people would have been satisfied enough if England hadn't made a show of themselves in the group stages, exiting the first round in the most dignified manner possible. That would do. Arrive, lose, leave, hope the rest of the continent didn't even know we were there in the first place. At the very least it made a refreshing change from past tournaments when, especially during late-era Sven and early McClaren, the build-up was defined by jingoistic bombast, the analysis centred around the many reasons why England were going to conquer the world and how many English players would waltz into the Germany side; it was so one-eyed some people probably took to wondering whether 'Europe' was even a real country. But the the entitlement that turned so many people off England and made it so enjoyable when they lost has gone and in its place stands a new realism fostered by that safe pair of hands Roy Hodgson.

England were tipped to be out by now and yet here they are, one of the top five sides in Europe winners of a tricky group, the reward for that a fascinating quarter-final against Italy. Not Spain. It could have been Spain and but for a late Jesus Navas goal against Croatia/Michel Platini's extra officials doing their job, England would have had the questionable honour of being bored to death 1-0 by the world champions. Instead they face Italy, a side that has not won a knock-out match at a major tournament since 2006. Admittedly that was the World Cup final, but still, the point stands: a mere mention of Italy might intimidate, but a glance at the teamsheet might not – not like a quick look at Spain's bench would. Saying that, the Hodgsonian way is not to underestimate anyone and downplay expectations and while this is not a vintage Italian side, they should still be seen as the favourites tonight.

For one thing, history is against England, who have never won a knock-out match away from home soil against what might be regarded as a major footballing nation. Italy, needless to say, fit that description, even if England have never played them in the latter stages of a major tournament. What's more, England have lost seven out of 10 quarter-finals – including their last three – while Italy have won eight out of 10, losing twice on penalties (against France at World Cup 98 and Spain at Euro 2008). Well, that's it then. No point playing now! England are going to have to win a game on penalties. Bye! Bye everyone! Forfeit!

Well, perhaps not, records there to be broken and all that. After all, until last night France had never lost to Spain in a tournament match and look how that one turned out (actually, does anyone know how it did turn out? I fell asleep after 63 minutes and have only just woken up from a tiki-taka-induced snooze). The past only has so much relevance: there comes a point when you have to look it up and down, shrug your shoulders like Larry David and say "Ehhh". I suppose what I'm getting at here is that England have to believe and other vague, non-specific schmaltzy stuff like that. That should do it, right?

Kick-off is at: 7.45pm BST.

Venue: Olympic Stadium, Kiev. Read More

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